N

Nate

@nate_the_great

Joined May 2026
0 Following 1 Followers
@pretoninho
Pretoninus II Trader FOUNDER @pretoninho · May 15, 05:41 AM
@pretoninho Solaris Traders · May 15, 05:41 AM
Trader FOUNDER
Good morning everyone!

I am making progress on my NBA_IV project.

I am used to fully trusting AI to translate my narrative ideas into code. I take advantage of your expertise to help me move forward View full post
Translated from French
Python script attached
@pretoninho
Pretoninus II Trader FOUNDER @pretoninho · May 14, 03:27 AM
@pretoninho Solaris Traders · May 14, 03:27 AM
Trader FOUNDER
nate_the_great The random selection problem makes sense — you miss the dominant names and the sector weights break.

Taking the top by market cap within each sector isn't selection bias — size is str View full post
@pretoninho
Pretoninus II Trader FOUNDER @pretoninho · May 13, 06:31 PM
@pretoninho Solaris Traders · May 13, 06:31 PM
Trader FOUNDER
nate_the_great Funny enough I run into the same issue on the crypto side.

The equivalent of SPY is the Total Market Cap, and BTC + ETH alone already represent ~55-60% of it. Add SOL, BNB, XRP and yo View full post
@algojay
AlgoJay @algojay · May 13, 04:55 PM
@algojay · May 13, 04:55 PM
Regarding your question

"ownership/utility seeking investors who invest for another reason like brand, franchise quality, narrative, scarcity or reflexive price history.
This is where I need the inp View full post
@pretoninho
Pretoninus II Trader FOUNDER @pretoninho · May 13, 04:26 PM
@pretoninho Solaris Traders · May 13, 04:26 PM
Trader FOUNDER
nate_the_great Yeah the Kalman gain is basically that — it decides how much weight you give to the new price vs what the model already expects. If the price is super noisy it just ignores most of it, View full post
@pretoninho
Pretoninus II Trader FOUNDER @pretoninho · May 13, 05:19 AM
@pretoninho Solaris Traders · May 13, 05:19 AM
Trader FOUNDER
BTC Daily — $81,198 · May 13, 2026

For the tenth consecutive day in the $79,500—$82,500 range, the market digested without making a decision. The $80,500 GAP continues to exert central gravity — each View full post
Translated from French
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@pretoninho
Pretoninus II Trader FOUNDER @pretoninho · May 13, 12:49 PM
@pretoninho Solaris Traders · May 13, 12:49 PM
Trader FOUNDER
Roman puts it perfectly — smoother vs filter. The look-ahead bias is exactly that: estimating a past state using future realizations.

The natural fix is a Kalman filter or HMM in filter mode, where Δ View full post
@quantguild
Roman Paolucci Trader FOUNDER @quantguild · May 13, 12:43 PM
@quantguild · May 13, 12:43 PM
Trader FOUNDER
I really like the notion of decomposing anything into more intuitive or structurally understood components, the entire purpose of many matrix decompositions is to observe structure. You are correct i View full post