Luwyn

Replying to @luwyn

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 06:56 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 06:56 PM

BTC

This ends up being a 1-2 hour intraday trade on margin using the banks money.

Since this is SPY, if I find a strategy that works very well, I could always go to MES or ES as these all follow the cash … View full post

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Replying to @luwyn

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 06:43 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 06:43 PM

BTC

The ATR has two components for which I am testing:

(1) Length of periods to use
(2) Rule for generating the average
-Wilders
-Exponential
-Simple
-Weighted
-Hull

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Replying to @luwyn

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 06:37 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 06:37 PM

BTC

@prince_vegeta Here is the follow up chart that I forgot to add with the last reply. ATR is tracked as an indicator at the bottom of the chart. The white line I drew would be the approximate SL. Note … View full post

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Replying to @luwyn

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 06:35 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 06:35 PM

BTC

@prince_vegeta Right now, the ruleset takes into account ATR. I am currently in the experimentation phase of using different calculations of ATR to get close to an optimal value.

Here is the results … View full post

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Replying to @luwyn

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 05:50 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 05:50 PM

SPY ≤749 YES

Some observations that may prove counter to my choice:

(1) Low volume - bullish
(2) Continual strength of bid on any news - bullish
(3) Positive gamma - bullish
(4) The market does not care about my … View full post

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Replying to @prince_vegeta

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 04:25 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 04:25 PM

BTC

Here is a setup on SPY that I like intraday for VWAP. Here is a M5 chart that I am trading. The white line is VWAP. Green is 12 EMA, yellow is 22 EMA and red is 55 EMA. Horizontal green is last tradin … View full post

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Replying to @sfx

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 03:34 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 03:34 PM

Risk Management

I personally use the concept behind the kelly to prevent myself from blowing up. I only risk a small percentage of my entire account with each bet. This allows me to make N mistakes in a row with a co … View full post

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Replying to @bloor

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 02:34 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 02:34 PM

Commodities

I think that I posted this monthly chart before here, but since this thread is for Gold, I am adding it here.

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Replying to @bloor

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 02:22 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 02:22 PM

Commodities

I am on the other side of the gold trade. I am buying future selloffs. I would love to see 3.5k gold.

I am not as much a fan of gold as I am bearish on the dollar. Gold is my proxy for a bearish bet … View full post

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Replying to @t_qk

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 01:22 PM

@luwyn · May 26, 01:22 PM

Trading Strategies

Your description of what works for you is also how I was able to stay in positions longer. I would constantly sell early with fear. Now I start smaller with an initial opening position size and build … View full post

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Replying to @pretoninho

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 03:03 AM

@luwyn · May 26, 03:03 AM

Commodities

I am buying all dips. If gold goes down to 3500, I hope, I am backing up the truck for delivery.

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Replying to @bloor

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 02:59 AM

@luwyn · May 26, 02:59 AM

Commodities

I think M2 money supply needs to be an input into the decision with respect to gold. Even in the short term next 2 year, I would find it hard to see spot gold under 3500. 3+ years out looks like gold … View full post

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Replying to @printmoney

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 02:39 AM

@luwyn · May 26, 02:39 AM

Macroeconomics

printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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Replying to @tom007

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 01:27 AM

@luwyn · May 26, 01:27 AM

Backtesting

This is one of my concerns. I am only as good as the quality of the data that I can get.

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Replying to @pqqq

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 26, 12:30 AM

@luwyn · May 26, 12:30 AM

Off Topic

I come from the CS field and worked in the industry for decades. I am transitioning from software design and development working on other peoples projects to finance and working for myself on my own p … View full post

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Replying to @luwyn

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 25, 11:45 PM

@luwyn · May 25, 11:45 PM

Fundamental Analysis

@dyehuthy I would postulate that we only have one inflation regime which is always trending higher on high time frames. Up and to the right only. Every fiat system ends in a blow up without exception … View full post

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Replying to @yogithedead

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 25, 11:28 PM

@luwyn · May 25, 11:28 PM

QQQ

It looks like the market has already looked past the strait, priced it in, and is pricing in earnings for the rest of the year.

I think we will get a relief rally whenever the strait is resolved. How … View full post

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Replying to @prince_vegeta

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 25, 11:25 PM

@luwyn · May 25, 11:25 PM

BTC

VWAP and AVWAP

I will sometimes counter trade intraday on the M5 if the price gets extended on the VWAP and we are not having a heavy trend day. I avoid VWAP on heavy trend days.

I like AVWAP bette … View full post

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Replying to @prince_vegeta

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 25, 11:20 PM

@luwyn · May 25, 11:20 PM

BTC

I use the volume profile for two reads.

(1) I like to look at single prints and for setups where price may blow thru the prints to the upside or downside.

(2) I like to track the unfilled gaps of t … View full post

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Replying to @partybuddha

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Luwyn @luwyn · May 25, 11:11 PM

@luwyn · May 25, 11:11 PM

Fundamental Analysis

I forgot to add that the best predictor of an ATH is a recent previous ATH. Now, we can define "recent previous ATH", but my point is to ask how many daily ATHs can you find in this monthly chart? The … View full post

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