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Does anyone believe the market is overvalued? PPI, uncertainty, etc., are high. A lot of big tech "earnings" are unrealized gains on private AI companies, the US consumer is sluggish, US federal debt is crazy, etc. On the flip side, the US and China may come to peace, the Ukraine-Russian war may end, and the reindustrialization + I guess AI-ization of North America may increase US growth. And there genuinely is a lot of AI demand. But ahaa. At artificially low prices. Although maybe hardware and software are both becoming more efficient. Also, other potential issues. Ahaaa. Japan may be the first domino (way too much debt. And doing net debt by subtracting social security and other government holdings of government debt is disingenuous because those are real liabilities to citizens). But Japan does have a lot of net wealth, so they may be fine in the end. China's M2 growth over the past decades has been CRAZY. It has already sort of crashed quietly post-GFC. But a bigger reckoning to come? Ahaa. Especially if they don't make peace with America? And aha. If they make a genuine peace, will Chinese tech rally? Also, US equities are overvalued. If I had to guess. Not financial advice. Stocks come down. There is inflationary growth. Commodities and real assets outperform many US public equities. Global equities also do well (especially commodity producers), and maybe a few really FCF+ AI companies eventually do well. And NVIDIA and a few other tech firms are already making a decent amount of FCF. Also, AI memory. Though be careful because if there is a recession, it is generally net negative for commodities, though it can be complex with stagflation, etc. Also, what happens to AI hardware producers if Big Tech stops spending? And ahaa. Memory companies have been cyclical in the past. Lot here. Sort of rambly, though I have contemplated and continue to learn about this and related topics. Hopefully helpful. Also banking and RE have some worrying signs and also some potential long term tailwinds I guess. Also, does anyone else believe there will be massive AI labor displacement? Most people are not that economically valuable. And humanoids are coming too. And don't forget space. Space could be HUGE. Eventually. Also, remember demographics.