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@algojay
AlgoJay
@algojay
Macroeconomics
This table is the historical returns of the following:
SPMO
QQQM
GLDM

The only Sh9tty Year is 2022 - Inflationary -> rate hikes

Right now Rates sit at the Upper end of Neutral/Slightly Restrictive Market Implies 0 rate cuts this year the probability of hikes seems more reasonable to me then cuts at least this year.

The Market is looking passed the inflationary shocks of the straight of Hormuz currently being closed -> oil up -> Inflationary

The Market is assuming AI will have deflationary effects through increasing productivity/efficiency and enhance current labor force as opposed to replace?

It would be interesting to see if anyone has any insight or a model that describes the differences between a 2022 type inflation situation vs an oil shock induced inflation situation
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May 11, 2026 · 06:42 PM · 28 views · Commons
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@quantguild
Roman Paolucci Mod Trader FOUNDER
@quantguild · May 11, 2026 · 07:23 PM
Trader FOUNDER
Very insightful thank you for sharing! Curious your thoughts: if AI increases unemployment or offers productivity offset is that not a double edged sword (not in the classical sense) in favor of expansionary policy? I see unemployment up and deflationary offset from productive as two reasons TO cut rates. Just my cursory thoughts haven’t sat with it too long but would love opinions on this
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