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I ran some Monte Carlo simulations (using the rules of LucidFutures Flex 50k) with a coin‑flip strategy that has 0 EV. The simulation suggests that it could be profitable in the very long run, but only if you buy a lot of accounts, it’s basically hoping for one very lucky account to make a lot of profit. In my simulations, around 25% of accounts passed the evaluation phase, and of those, only about 35% actually received a payout. The overall expected value across all accounts is still positive, but the problem is that you’d need to buy hundreds of accounts to catch that one lucky path (The lucky path could also never show up). So my opinion is that not really a good strategy unless you have an actually positive EV. This is based on a 0‑EV strategy and the risk parameters (also when to withdraw, etc) I chose, so if you have any suggestions or see any flaws, or is should use a different prop firm, I’m happy to hear them so I could improve it. Also if you have any more questions about the data dont hesitate to ask.
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Hey, I looked into this as well and ran some ideas through Claude. What I discovered is applying a quantitative approach is the correct way to model the risk and reward metrics needed to feed the Monte Carlo to ensure a pass. However, you need to start with a strategy that has some edge and you optimize the strategy to the specific prop firm.
If starting in the other way around, by building a strategy based on a prop firm, you leave the highly optimized strategy to break on a market regime shift that wasnt accounted for in the backtest.
Find a simple strategy that has some positive EV, and you right it might not even be feasible outside a prop environment and then optimize for the specific prop firm.
An example is the opening range breakout or one of those youtube guru strategies. You can also experiment with something as simple as a VWAP momentum type of play, just to gather a baseline edge and then go down the prop firm specific optimization.
If starting in the other way around, by building a strategy based on a prop firm, you leave the highly optimized strategy to break on a market regime shift that wasnt accounted for in the backtest.
Find a simple strategy that has some positive EV, and you right it might not even be feasible outside a prop environment and then optimize for the specific prop firm.
An example is the opening range breakout or one of those youtube guru strategies. You can also experiment with something as simple as a VWAP momentum type of play, just to gather a baseline edge and then go down the prop firm specific optimization.
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I've heard this notion before too. And I've also ran some monte carlo simulations, and based on what I've noticed, you cant actually just get away with a 0 EV, or -EV strategy. The reason is because of all the small rules that they add. For example the EOD MLL, will force you down a lucky path if you strategy is 0EV or -EV, or force you to have +EV to be able to pass with lower risk. Even after getting passed that, you also face the problems with consistency %, and even the requirement for certain number of profitable days or even the minimum payout you need. all of these force out most retail strategies.
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I can expand later on but this feels like martingaling roulette to me, the sample path of the few is not the sample path of many and gaming negative EV in a non-ergodic system isn’t something that has a black or white answer, my thoughts for now thanks for sharing!
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I personally think it could possible to make it profitable, but you’d need to buy a lot of accounts to get one "hit". Using Monte Carlo simulation and a coin‑flip strategy (50% win rate and 1:1 risk/reward), it has about a 25% chance of passing the evaluation phase, which is pretty decent, while the EV is still 0. But passing the evaluation doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll get a payout. So my final tought is that it could be possible but you would need a lot of accounts that keep blowing up and you still have a lot of risk if the one good moment isn't happening for a long time.
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(Edited)
some guy made a video about it his name is delta something im sury if you search on youtube quant propfirms you will find it.
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