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MrHodler9000
@mrhodler9000
BTC
Today Bitcoin turns 17.
Decomposing BTC price relative to its power-law trend with a Hidden Markov Model reveals three regimes: accumulation (blue), transition (orange), and bubble (red). Bitcoin grows as a power law in accumulation and exponentially during bubbles. Exponentials are unstable, so price reverts to the core power-law channel (blue). This cycle never entered a true bubble regime, making a 70%+ drawdown from the old “4-year cycle” unlikely. I expect a steady grind higher into 2026.
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Jan 03, 2026 · 11:45 AM · 42 views
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10 Replies
@macro
Macro Trader
@macro · Jan 03, 2026 · 12:17 PM
Trader
BTC
I’m curious, how much % of your investments are into BTC?
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D
davchal
@davchal · Jan 03, 2026 · 07:52 PM
BTC
The first thing that I noticed regarding your results is an apparent trendline with price & residuals. Can anything be gleaned from this trendline, with respect to Hidden Markov Models? I'm generally unknown to the topic, but the residuals trend seems asymptotically drawn to 0 between days 6,500 and 7,000.
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G
GiltyHaggis
@amir28100 · Jan 12, 2026 · 02:35 PM
BTC
May be a stupid question but what is Genesis Block?
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