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I find once you *see* the amorphous concept of expected value in action (actually executing trades in a discretionary or semi-discretionary capacity) trading feels far more like poker and edge can accumulate and evolve over time - definitely opportunity, but the long run dictates actual efficacy, just like poker - not one hand or trade - not a single tournament - but thousands of trades

Yes there is edge and you won't hear about that edge because it will be arbitraged away and alpha will turn to beta in a second.

My edge is so edgy chatgpt told me to consult with a lawyer since it can constitute as insider trading.

I agree that its basically impossible as a retail trader to try and compete in the HFT, market making space that being said
There is definitely edge to be found in markets as they are irrational - you just need to take the path less traveled and not listen to some guru flexing his lambo and engineer data or methodologies that most havent considered or seem too complex for someone starting out to delve into...

There are multiple edges. Lack of pressure to act is a good one I hadn't really thought of before. But there's a couple more I can think of, liquidity constraints and decreasing marginal returns.

Marginal returns: I'm not sure if a profit seeking institution would put a team that they pay 2 million dollars to annually to develop a strategy on an asset that can only absorb a fraction of volume that larger cap assets can.

Liquidity constraints: As AUM increases, position size increases. In smaller cap assets you can't make a trade without moving the market in a way that isn't profitable.

Both of these edges exist in low liquidity markets. The lack of presence of institutions in these markets is another additive edge for retail. It's essentially you (a smart and prepared person) vs day traders with bearish/bullish flags with RSI/MACD entries trading a flashy new asset because they got bored and have bad discipline.

P.S I've been that day trader. At a certain point you start to think "if I traded the exact opposite as I have been the last week, I would have made money." 😭

Take a look around you. If you use information that few people or no one uses. And if this information is beneficial to you, then it's an edge!

Have you tried threatening to nuke someone and then not nuking them? I have seen retail traders find great success with this. You go short, make the threat, cover, rebuy, and then say that a third party begged you to stop. You can do this as many times as you want. There's no downside. Hope this helps

I believe there's a window of opportunity that comes from inefficiencies and limitations of how different players can play.

Hedge funds and buy-side may have access to better data and infrastructure but are deeply constrained by their size and legal obligations in the way they operate.

Retail traders don't have to deal with insane slippage, finding a counterparty or quickly backing off when an idea goes wrong without alerting the entire exchange.

I feel like edge exists on the limitations/constraints of your counterparties, but no one will really tell how to exploit it and is specially difficult for us retail to find it because we rarely know how to obtain, process, code, optimize, back and forward-test quality data all at once. Perhaps AI can help significantly in that right now, creating a window of opportunity that may eventually fade. Just my opinion though :D