So i have been obsessed with lithium for the past 2 years and I just want to share a thesis. I have been thinking that lithium prices will soar along with the increasing demand for ai centers and electric vehicles.
Currently there is an American lithium project (currently in construction) that owns the largest lithium deposit in the US (ticker LAC). In late September the Trump administration and GM backed this mine, causing the stock to soar. Conveniently, lithium carbonate futures have only gone up since this point as well. Because the mine is still in construction, I think a lot of investors took short term gains in fear of construction and Trump’s competence, causing the stock to retrace very close to pre-backing prices (very oversold). I think that this mine will be a key future producer for lithium and investment opportunities once construction is complete around late 2027 while lithium continues to do its thing. I really feel like this is like a beach ball held under water. Thinking about call debit spreads for 2028.
Am I crazy with beer goggles or do I have something? Am I servery underestimating construction risk and should I just contain my greed on a safer mine like ALB? I would greatly appreciate other perspectives. Thanks.
PS I couldn't post this in symposium because I'm discussing a relatively unfamiliar stock
