Position in the cycle
Fourth post-halving cycle. The April 2024 halving propelled BTC from $45,000 to an ATH of ~$125,000 in mid-2025, or +2.8x in 14 months. Lower amplitude than previous cycles — a sign of maturity of the asset.
Since the ATH, correction of 48% to the low of ~$65,000-$67,000 in early 2026. Historically normal for BTC (typical 45-85% range). The structure remains that of a cycle correction, not of a reversal.
The week
Modest volume (15.3M) on a slightly positive candle. Higher wicks persist around $81,000-$82,000 — the price is testing resistance without strong conviction. The market is looking for direction.
Key levels
Supports
$78,000 (recent consolidation)
$65,000-$67,000 (bottom of the cycle)
Resistances
$85,000-$87,000 (immediate)
$93,000-$96,000 (distribution area 2025) ·
$100,000 (psychological)
Market view
Slightly bullish bias · Moderate conviction
The recovery from $65,000 is structurally sound — progressive green candles, not a technical squeeze. But the low volume and the upper locks signal caution. True bullish validation requires the reconquest of $93,000-$96,000. As long as this level holds, we remain in a rebound within a short-term downtrend.
Implications options
Favorable context for the Bull Put Spread — strike sold around $72,000-$74,000 (delta 0.20, below the identified support). If BTC holds $78,000, the bounty is collected. Breakout under $75,000 = immediate invalidation, stop or roll.
In one sentence — BTC is rebounding healthily but without conviction. Bull Put Spread with strikes under identified supports, strict management discipline.
Position dans le cycle
Quatrième cycle post-halving. Le halving d'avril 2024 a propulsé BTC de $45,000 à un ATH ~$125,000 mi-2025, soit +2.8x en 14 mois. Amplitude inférieure aux cycles précédents — signe de maturité de l'actif.
Depuis l'ATH, correction de 48% jusqu'au bas ~$65,000-$67,000 début 2026. Historiquement normale pour BTC (fourchette typique 45-85%). La structure reste celle d'une correction de cycle, pas d'un retournement.
La semaine
Volume modeste (15.3M) sur une bougie légèrement positive. Des mèches supérieures persistent autour de $81,000-$82,000 — le prix teste la résistance sans conviction forte. Le marché cherche une direction.
Niveaux clés
Supports
$78,000 (consolidation récente)
$65,000-$67,000 (bas du cycle)
Résistances
$85,000-$87,000 (immédiate)
$93,000-$96,000 (zone de distribution 2025) ·
$100,000 (psychologique)
Vue de marché
Biais légèrement bullish · Conviction modérée
La recovery depuis $65,000 est structurellement saine — bougies vertes progressives, pas un squeeze technique. Mais le volume faible et les mèches supérieures signalent la prudence. La vraie validation haussière exige la reconquête de $93,000-$96,000. Tant que ce niveau tient, on reste dans un rebond à l'intérieur d'une tendance baissière court terme.
Implications options
Contexte favorable au Bull Put Spread — strike vendu autour de $72,000-$74,000 (delta 0.20, sous le support identifié). Si BTC tient $78,000, la prime est collectée. Cassure sous $75,000 = invalidation, stop ou roll immédiat.
En une phrase — BTC rebondit sainement mais sans conviction. Bull Put Spread avec strikes sous les supports identifiés, discipline stricte sur la gestion.
