June - Week of 22nd-26th
2 weeks ago, we had a 5% drop and an immediate dead cat bounce. HOW? It wasn't the Asset Managers. They are sitting tight. Its shorts being covered by the LFs. Last week's COT data wasn't released until today, so this is late update. We seem to be OVERALL market skew towards calls, but the markets keep pushing down or chopping because there are no fresh longs added and the PUT IV seems a lot higher. We just had the Iranians walk out the meeting, but the market doesn't seem to care about that anymore and SPCX is down more than 12%. The mid-year cycle is yet to completely play but July seems to be a good month ending up by more than 5% for indices. But there will be another 10% drop soon. Hopefully. I need to get into the market for long term. The image below is for this week. Below 0GEX and downward pressure. We are in post QW, so this is almost always chopping and downward for more than 7 days as per prior years. Playing directional options will bleed you and playing directional on the underlying without protection will kill you. BE CAREFUL.
((NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)).
